{"id":61378,"date":"2025-05-28T07:36:14","date_gmt":"2025-05-28T07:36:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/earlypostdaily.com\/?p=61378"},"modified":"2025-05-28T07:36:14","modified_gmt":"2025-05-28T07:36:14","slug":"wmo-warns-of-high-probability-global-temperatures-will-breach-1-5c-threshold-by-2029","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/earlypostdaily.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/28\/wmo-warns-of-high-probability-global-temperatures-will-breach-1-5c-threshold-by-2029\/","title":{"rendered":"WMO Warns of High Probability Global Temperatures Will Breach 1.5\u00b0C Threshold by 2029"},"content":{"rendered":"

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)<\/strong> has issued a stark warning: there is a 70% chance<\/strong> that the average global temperature from 2025 to 2029<\/strong> will exceed 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels<\/strong>, raising fresh concerns about the accelerating pace of climate change.<\/p>\n

The findings are part of the WMO\u2019s annual Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update<\/strong>, released on Wednesday. The report also highlights an 80% likelihood<\/strong> that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024<\/strong>\u2014the current warmest year on record.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years,\u201d said Ko Barrett<\/strong>, WMO Deputy Secretary-General.
\u201cThere will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet. Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Key Findings from the WMO Report<\/strong><\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n

    2024<\/strong> marked the first calendar year in which global average temperatures<\/strong> exceeded 1.5\u00b0C above the 1850\u20131900 baseline<\/strong>, the reference period before widespread industrialisation.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    The 1.5\u00b0C threshold<\/strong>, established under the Paris Agreement (2015)<\/strong>, is intended to limit the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. However, the report notes that a \u201cpermanent breach\u201d<\/strong> refers to sustained long-term warming over 20 to 30 years<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    The report estimates an 86% chance<\/strong> that at least one year between 2025 and 2029<\/strong> will see temperatures above 1.5\u00b0C<\/strong> compared to the 1850\u20131900 average.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    There is a 70% chance<\/strong> that the five-year average (2025\u20132029)<\/strong> will exceed the 1.5\u00b0C threshold<\/strong>, underscoring an accelerating trend of global warming.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    \n

    Regional and Seasonal Impacts<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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    • \n

      South Asia<\/strong> has seen wetter-than-normal conditions<\/strong> in recent years (excluding 2023), a trend the WMO expects to continue between 2025 and 2029<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      In India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD)<\/strong> reported above-normal monsoon rainfall in four of the last five years<\/strong>, and forecasts above-normal monsoons again in 2025<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      The Arctic<\/strong> is projected to warm 2.4\u00b0C above average<\/strong> in upcoming winters (November\u2013March), which is over 3.5 times the global average<\/strong>. As a result, sea ice is likely to shrink further in key regions such as the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      From May to September<\/strong> during 2025\u20132029, regions like the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia<\/strong> may see increased rainfall, while the Amazon<\/strong> is expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      \n

      Global Climate Action and Future Targets<\/strong><\/h3>\n

      Countries are scheduled to submit updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs)<\/strong>\u2014their official climate action plans\u2014for the 2031\u20132035 period<\/strong> to the UN climate change office<\/strong> this year. These plans are central to achieving the Paris Agreement goal<\/strong> of limiting global warming to 1.5\u00b0C<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

      Despite alarming trends, the WMO stresses that early warnings, scientific modelling<\/strong>, and adaptation strategies<\/strong> remain key tools for mitigating future impacts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a stark warning: there is a 70% chance that the average global temperature from 2025 to 2029 will exceed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":61379,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,4601,30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-61378","post","has-post-thumbnail","category-jammu","category-jammu-and-kashmir","category-kashmir"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/earlypostdaily.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61378","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/earlypostdaily.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/earlypostdaily.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/earlypostdaily.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/earlypostdaily.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61378"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/earlypostdaily.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61378\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61380,"href":"https:\/\/earlypostdaily.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61378\/revisions\/61380"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/earlypostdaily.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61379"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/earlypostdaily.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61378"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/earlypostdaily.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61378"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/earlypostdaily.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61378"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}